I think this is a tipping point.

[dragonrider]

The more time passes, the more i tend to believe that this crisis is actually going to be a tipping point, a very big moment in the history of mankind.

I have said in another thread, that this crisis will reveal what state chinese society is in, as well as the economy.
There are people who believe that this will be the chinese century, that the chinese economy will become the largest economy in the world within the next ten years.
But there are also people who believe that china is actually a lot weaker than everybody thinks, and that the chinese economy is full of bubbles and bad debts.

If the chinese economy is realy as weak as some people believe, there is no way it can handle the impact of the gigantic blows it is currently getting. There is no way a weak economy full of bad debts and bubbles would not go into a deep recession after all of this.

But if, on the other hand, the economy will be up and running again, a year from now, then the innevitable conclusion should be that the chinese economy is a lot stronger than many people think.

The consequences of this are pretty big.

If the chinese economy will keep on expanding, then we undoubtedly will be entering a new world order within the next few decades. If this crisis cannot stop the rise of china, then it is not very plausible america's trade war will.
And then it is unavoidable that america will simply lose the new cold war it has started, with china and it's allies.
The american world order will collapse then, within the next 20 years or so.

If the chinese economy goes into a major recession though, the consequences will also be huge.
Putins regime will falter as well. If he would want to continue his reign, he would then have no choice but to repair the somewhat problematic relationship between russia and europe.
But then, lukashenko's regime will also stagger, and viktor orbans regime in hungary would also collapse. Probably a lot of other illiberal regimes as well.

So within a year from now, we will know if the world will enter an illiberal, anti-democratic, chinese world order, based on capitalism and military power only, or whether we will enter a liberal world order, based on human rights.

 

[null24]

These are and have been my concerns for some time. People used to laugh at me when I said 25 years ago that we will all be speaking Chinese in the 2000s. And yes, I think it is inevitable, even if the Chinese economy is weaker than imagined, America's is the same.

 

[dragonrider]

These are and have been my concerns for some time. People used to laugh at me when I said 25 years ago that we will all be speaking Chinese in the 2000s. And yes, I think it is inevitable, even if the Chinese economy is weaker than imagined, America's is the same.

Yeah, i also believe that this is innevitable. But the question is whether it will be a liberal or an illiberal china.

Illiberal, authoritarian regimes have been on the rise for some time now. And in the wake of that, illiberal, authoritarian leaders like trump and bolsonaro.

At this moment it is unclear whether authoritarian leadership by definition weakens an economy and a society. Some people like myself, believe so.

But i realy believe this is the big test. Now we are going to see what kind of societies are stronger: illiberal, authoritarian societies, or liberal, human rights based societies.

I think the answer to that question will be decisive for all of mankind from now on.

 

[woogyboogy]

I just want to throw in two pointers for discussion...

1.) I've seen speculated that the Chinese governments way of doing things cannot really be sustained if the countries economic growth continues much further, and I think it is already possible to see that controlling the people is becoming more and more difficult, probably because of technologies global connection, as well as growing wealth of the average person.

2.) I think we cannot just talk about a rise of China, for how our potential political future could look like, but also have to look at politics of other countries in Asia, as even if China is the economic leader, a lot of South East Asian countries are going through phases of major growth. And while the politics are admittedly certainly not as liberal as most countries in the west, most of their political landscape still cannot be compared to the authoritarian regime in China.

All that put aside, I agree, that this is a testing moment for authoritarian tendencies of all governments. If in my home country we can come out of this crisis, with keeping most of our freedoms, the ruling politicians will have proven more trustworthy than I ever granted them with.

 

[AikyO]

These are and have been my concerns for some time. People used to laugh at me when I said 25 years ago that we will all be speaking Chinese in the 2000s. And yes, I think it is inevitable, even if the Chinese economy is weaker than imagined, America's is the same.

Speaking Chinese seems like a stretch. However, I wouldn't be against finding an hybrid writing system or just stealing ideograms. China itself is composed of many dialects, factions that can understand themselves because of the common writing system even if not vocally. Time to get our extremely linear and poor writing system away from the front scene. Ideograms, and affiliated writings systems, are very vast, complex structures. Can you imagine a city with only twenty six buildings repeating infinitely ? Well, it is what our writing system is. And it can only go forward and from left to right. Reading from top to bottom feels like falling, instead of fighting your way to the end of line, you have to let yourself fall. Ideograms were birthed from the observation of the world and divination (or in modern term: the ability to recognize patterns) and have this form of daoist/buddhist feel to them. But yeah, it's difficult to learn, oh but why is life so painful and worth it ?

Apart from that, I wonder how anyone can believe we are not going to dive deeper into control issues when all we do is create more control based ecosystem (it's the effect those objects have on us). Computers are the pinnacle of this, a world that can replicate the real world to its utmost and is entirely under the grip of man, under our design. While it evolved from books, it got ridden of the need for an outward light source, which is pretty telling about the self sufficiency desire of it and the direction of said desire to isolate from reality (the shared thing). Hopefully, AI, the god we have created for ourselves will somehow solve all our problems ...

 

[dragonrider]

These are and have been my concerns for some time. People used to laugh at me when I said 25 years ago that we will all be speaking Chinese in the 2000s. And yes, I think it is inevitable, even if the Chinese economy is weaker than imagined, America's is the same.

Speaking Chinese seems like a stretch. However, I wouldn't be against finding an hybrid writing system or just stealing ideograms. China itself is composed of many dialects, factions that can understand themselves because of the common writing system even if not vocally. Time to get our extremely linear and poor writing system away from the front scene. Ideograms, and affiliated writings systems, are very vast, complex structures. Can you imagine a city with only twenty six buildings repeating infinitely ? Well, it is what our writing system is. And it can only go forward and from left to right. Reading from top to bottom feels like falling, instead of fighting your way to the end of line, you have to let yourself fall. Ideograms were birthed from the observation of the world and divination (or in modern term: the ability to recognize patterns) and have this form of daoist/buddhist feel to them. But yeah, it's difficult to learn, oh but why is life so painful and worth it ?

Apart from that, I wonder how anyone can believe we are not going to dive deeper into control issues when all we do is create more control based ecosystem (it's the effect those objects have on us). Computers are the pinnacle of this, a world that can replicate the real world to its utmost and is entirely under the grip of man, under our design. While it evolved from books, it got ridden of the need for an outward light source, which is pretty telling about the self sufficiency desire of it and the direction of said desire to isolate from reality (the shared thing). Hopefully, AI, the god we have created for ourselves will somehow solve all our problems ...

But i think these control issues are being put to the test now.

It is not realy about china. But about leadership.
If authoritarian leadership turns out to be a better solution to the current crisis than liberal, human rights based leadership, then we will enter an authoritarian, illiberal era. Our rights as human beings will gradually be stripped away from us, never to return. And leaders like trump, orban and bolsonaro will be only the beginning, the relatively mild first wave of authoritarian leadership.

If on the other hand, authoritarian leadership would fail, the opposite will happen. Authoritarian regimes will either collapse, or be reformed to more liberal regimes.

The role of china is crucial, because it supports many other authoritarian regimes. One of wich is russia, wich in it's turn supports and inspires many other authoritarian regimes.

 

[xss27]

There is no way China will dominate a world order. They don't have it in them to maintain that sort of dominion nor do they command the fear/respect necessary for it. If you think people hate the American order, the hatred that will get thrown China's way will be far greater. No one likes China. They don't even command respect within their own geographical region, unlike America which has allies across the whole of Europe.

This is also not even taking into account what happens when the West returns manufacturing to its own shores. What will China do then? Sell their junk to their poverty stricken farmers? What will China do anyway when its blooming middle-class demands more of the pie, more rights and freedoms, that is inevitable with such a bloom? The CCP will either have to change its stance or go down in a bloody mess. China doesn't know how to rule outside of its own borders successfully.

I do feel like something is happening at the moment though. Incidentally, and I could just be going fucking mental lol, but I'm experiencing some weird closed eye visuals at the moment. It's like a weird swirling motion in my minds eye. Maybe it's the lockdown, the lack of pollution, the fact half the world is currently experiencing exactly the same thing day to day. Something feels odd about this whole thing.

 

[dragonrider]

There is no way China will dominate a world order. They don't have it in them to maintain that sort of dominion nor do they command the fear/respect necessary for it. If you think people hate the American order, the hatred that will get thrown China's way will be far greater. No one likes China. They don't even command respect within their own geographical region, unlike America which has allies across the whole of Europe.

This is also not even taking into account what happens when the West returns manufacturing to its own shores. What will China do then? Sell their junk to their poverty stricken farmers? What will China do anyway when its blooming middle-class demands more of the pie, more rights and freedoms, that is inevitable with such a bloom? The CCP will either have to change its stance or go down in a bloody mess. China doesn't know how to rule outside of its own borders successfully.

I do feel like something is happening at the moment though. Incidentally, and I could just be going fucking mental lol, but I'm experiencing some weird closed eye visuals at the moment. It's like a weird swirling motion in my minds eye. Maybe it's the lockdown, the lack of pollution, the fact half the world is currently experiencing exactly the same thing day to day. Something feels odd about this whole thing.

I think you are right. But the thing is, we don't know this for sure.
I like to believe that totalitarian regimes ultimately lack the strength to enforce any kind of world order that fits them.

But there are people who think otherwise, and they also have some good arguments to back up their claims.

The point is though, that this crisis is going to show us who is right and who isn't.
And the consequences of that will be huge. Everything we think we know is going to be put to the test. And at the end we are gonna see wich is stronger: authoritarian rule, or liberal democracy.

If totalitarian regimes will come out stronger, then the worldwide appeal of totalitarianism will become stronger as well. Backed by a shift in power, weakening liberal democracies.

If liberal democracies come out stronger, then many totalitarian regimes will turn out to be weak, and a lot of them will start to crumble.

 

[downwardsfromzero]

If we just remind ourselves of the circumstances around the fall of the Soviet Union, and some its domino effects in the communist bloc overall, we get the indication that it holds some pertinence to consider what consequences may occur in the post-authoritarian power vacuum. Who stands to benefit from the events of an inevitable transitionary period?

I would write more on this but bedtime just hit .

 

[metta-morpheus]

Coronavirus pandemic linked to destruction of wildlife and world's ecosystems | DW | 14.04.2020 — DW

COVID-19 is the latest example of how human impact on biodiverse areas and wildlife habitats is linked to the spread of infectious diseases.

apple.news

Interesting article. Wasn’t sure which covid thread to put this in. But here it is.

 

[null24]

Speaking Chinese seems like a stretch.

That was meant more figuratively than literally.Thanks for the lesson tho...

Also, "we" have not created an AI. Yet.

 

[xss27]

Coronavirus pandemic linked to destruction of wildlife and world's ecosystems | DW | 14.04.2020 — DW

COVID-19 is the latest example of how human impact on biodiverse areas and wildlife habitats is linked to the spread of infectious diseases.

apple.news

Interesting article. Wasn’t sure which covid thread to put this in. But here it is.

Thing is though we've always lived among other animals, the possibility of transmission is not really a novel thing in itself. We need to feed too. No doubt its a good a time as any to examine our current setup in regards to animals. This should include pets too; I have heard little mention about dogs or cats in this current crisis.

Virus transmission between species is just a fact of life we have to accept. But having access to hundreds of exotic species to eat, stored in grubby conditions.. that needs to end.

 

[dragonrider]

Man, i thought about this thread so often over the past few months.

In spite of everything i wrote when the covid crisis began, i never thought that things would get so dark, so quickly.

The world is hanging in the balance like it hasn't for half a century.
For as long as i've been alive, nuclear escalation has never been such a plausible scenario as it is now.
Nor the collapse of both russia, as well as europe.

I think, and fear a little as well, that we are about to become witnesses of world history. Whole shelves of books will be written about the coming....well, maybe months even. It is likely that a year from now, and maybe even a few months from now, the world will have changed. Dramatically.

Both the west and russia have cornered themselves, in that losing this war will be catastrophic for the losing party.

We could be witnessing either the end of the american world order soon, or the end of putins reign of terror.

Either way, it's history in the making.

I wish i could say something more uplifting about all of this. I am somewhat optimistic that darkness will not prevail. But we don't know that for sure, yet. And we don't know at what cost yet.

People have often spoken about donald trump, saddam hussein, or putin as "the new hitler".
But i believe that in the next few decades, at least in the western part of the world, the name vladimir putin will be synonymous with great evil. Many future villains will no longer be called the new hitler, but "the new putin" instead.

Whatever happens, that much seems to be a pretty innevitable outcome right now.

May all the forces of darkness be defeated at a not too high cost of human lives and livelyhoods.

 

[Tomtegubbe]

May all the forces of darkness be defeated at a not too high cost of human lives and livelyhoods.

And may our hearts not succumb into darkness in these times. By keeping the faith, morality and goodwill we are fighting a good fight in a war that goes beyond this one.

 

[MAGMA17]

I share the intuition that very soon we'll see something that will separate the current historical era from the next. And I must say that I am very concerned about how this change will take place...

However, I would like to say that it is absolutely necessary to get out of the thought that there is a battle between good and evil. It absolutely does not correspond to the reality of the facts. And I don't write this for the usual clichés of non-duality: there is a duality here. And the parties are all on the side of the -, none of the +. There are no good empires, it is simply an oxymoron.

 

[downwardsfromzero]

Speaking of Putin and illiberal authoritarian kleptocrats, his shadow extends to the catastrophe that is the current state of British politics too, although the UK seems about as relevant as a Punch and Judy show right now...

We in the UK and in Europe had it pretty good, but there is a saying, "All good things come to an end."

Remember to focus on our common positive vision of what will come next - the next good thing?

We all knew that endless consumption could not be sustained indefinitely, this seems to be the point where we start to find out what might come after that. Do these schmucks maybe even imagine themselves to be heroes for bringing mass consumption to an end in such short shrift?


It has certainly gotten to the point that ecosystems can't take any more of what humans have been doing - there are so few birds and so few insects to be seen compared to my childhood some few decades ago, and I hear the fish aren't doing so well, either. Weather patterns are clearly changing as there is simply far more energy held in the atmosphere nowadays. Is this perhaps what arises out of the Gaian psyche when a species blunders so wildly out of balance - Authoritarian maniacs hell-bent on destruction and, most importantly, death on as large a scale as possible? Or is the mental sickness of despots and the societies that support them a cause as much as a symptom?

We can look beyond duality: the situation is both good and bad, and neither good nor bad. Humanity got through the late Pleistocene events (shame about the mammoths, though) just as some of us will make it through what increasingly looks like an upcoming pinch point.

[One of the books I'm currently reading is "Dispelling Wetiko" by Paul Levy; I would love it if some more Nexians were willing to join me in reading it as it offers some provocative insights about all of this stuff, albeit from a perspective ten years previous to now.]

 

[dragonrider]

I share the intuition that very soon we'll see something that will separate the current historical era from the next. And I must say that I am very concerned about how this change will take place...

However, I would like to say that it is absolutely necessary to get out of the thought that there is a battle between good and evil. It absolutely does not correspond to the reality of the facts. And I don't write this for the usual clichés of non-duality: there is a duality here. And the parties are all on the side of the -, none of the +. There are no good empires, it is simply an oxymoron.

I agree that to see this as good vs evil would be a simplification that would not do justice to the complexity of the situation.

But putin is definately evil, and also undoubtedly the far, far greater evil here.

And the many anonymous innocent victims of his agression deserve to be given the benefit of the doubt, morally, so i would want to call those men, women and childeren "good people".

 

[MAGMA17]

But putin is definately evil, and also undoubtedly the far, far greater evil here.

He definitely is. And most likely he's the greatest evil in this story (but I wouldn't put my money on this).

And the many anonymous innocent victims of his agression deserve to be given the benefit of the doubt, morally, so i would want to call those men, women and childeren "good people".

I think it's pretty obvious that I wasn't talking about innocent civilians in my post. May they rest in peace.

 

[dithyramb]

[One of the books I'm currently reading is "Dispelling Wetiko" by Paul Levy; I would love it if some more Nexians were willing to join me in reading it as it offers some provocative insights about all of this stuff, albeit from a perspective ten years previous to now.]

Thanks for the suggestion. I used to be quite a Derrick Jensen fan in the 2000s.

 

[fink]

For a couple of years now something has felt wrong. There have been no times where I feel truly happy and relaxed in the knowledge that everything is in it's correct place. The sense that there is no point working towards anything long term at all. The humid, close atmosphere before a big storm breaks has been suffocating me for too long.

I hope something definitive happens soon. For good would be great. For bad would be acceptable. Anything is better than this insufferable, anxious waiting.